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PHEVs produce nearly five times more global warming pollution than official data show, according to a new analysis.

Widening Gap In Official and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release only 19% less CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, based on analysis conducted by a non-profit organization. That differs significantly with laboratory estimates, which suggested a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Analysts examined information from in-vehicle fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than lab figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are rising, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst participating in the study. “That gap is growing and poses a significant problem. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Key Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked most of the difference to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of miles driven in electric power relative to total mileage. The team determined that only a quarter of travel was completed in electric mode, while official assumptions suggested 84%.

Even, when operating in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than official estimates. That occurred because EV motors were not strong sufficient to operate alone, resulting to engines using gasoline for almost a third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed four major carmaker groups to avoid over €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing adherence with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could spend approximately €500 extra per year in running expenses than would be assumed under lab conditions.

“The bold claims that automakers often promote about their PHEV cars are clearly far from the truth,” stated a automotive expert. “Consumers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are little better than regular petrol and diesel cars in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Political Discussion and Automotive Pressure

Plug-in hybrid vehicles have lately been brought again into policy discussions as carmakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ targets. A proposed prohibition on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the automotive sector and opposition from EU countries with large car industries.

Some senior officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a potential “compromise” option to include in the legislation.

One external energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the research, described the analysis a “very useful addition” after a long period in which segments of the automotive sector argued there was insufficient information to properly assess real-world CO2 output.

“The results demonstrate, without question, that the difference in official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is significantly greater than for gasoline or diesel vehicles,” they stated. “All policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost care and in the light of that evidence.”